The End of Month effect

The 'End of Month' effect has been the subject of many scientific studies. Statistics show that stock prices, and in particular US stock prices, tend to go up during the last days and the first days of the month.

Economists Lakonishok and Smidt calculate in their study – Are seasonal anomalies real? A ninety-year perspective – that most of the average annual return of the Dow Jones index over the period 1897-1986 was realised in the first and the last days of the month. Incredibly, keeping a position during the rest of the month, contributes little to an investor's return!

Economists Carchano and Tornero in their study – Calendar Anomalies in Stock Index Futures – write: "Our analysis shows that the 'end of the month' effect in the S&P 500 future is the only calendar effect that is statistically and economically significant over a long period of time."

Investui uses the S&P 500 market index to benefit from the 'End of Month' effect. The strategy opens a position four market days before the end of the month and sells the position four market days after the start of the month. Many experienced investors use similar strategies.

RESULTS

This chart shows the gross profit generated for clients by the End of Month effect. In 2019 the profit amounted to € 6.770. In 2020 the profit amounted to € 33.040. The profit is based on a position of one future or the equivalent in CFDs.

This chart shows the gross profit generated by the End of Month effect based on a 10-year back-test. The profit is based on a position of one future or the equivalent in CFDs.

WHY DOES THIS STRATEGY WORK?

Economists definitely agree on the existence of the 'End of Month' effect. Opinions differ on what precisely causes the effect. Broadly speaking, the effect is caused by a conjunction of significant changes in stock order-flows. At the end of the month, the composition of large funds and insurance portfolios is adjusted. Changes in the composition of the stocks which make up market indexes as well as mergers and acquisitions, also have an impact on the large stock flows.

If there is currently an open position, it is visible in the live positions table.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

A stock market effect discussed and confirmed in numerous academic studies.

A strategy with a consistent performance for 100 years!

A limited number of opportunities (12 per year) therefore low commission costs.

Only 20% of the time in position, compared to an index tracker.

Very high liquidity in the S&P 500 future.

Good results in 25 out of 26 stock markets tested.

IMPORTANT ACADEMIC STUDIES

Further Evidence on the Turn of the Month Effect, Erhard Reschenhofer – Business and Economics Journal
Calendar Anomalies in Stock Index Futures, Oscar Carchano & Ángel Pardo Tornero – University of Valencia
An anatomy of Calendar Effects, Laurens Swinkels & Pim van Vliet – Journal of Asset Management
Do Seasonal Anomalies Still Work?, Constantine Dzhabarov & William Ziemba – The Journal of Portfolio Management